When You See Instability Coming
When the future is like the past, you don’t need new data. You can make a good decision based on old data. You can take the right action...
How To Think When You're Stuck
When you’re stuck, it’s frustrating. You’re in a fifty-fifty place where you could go either way. You could take the job or not. You...
The Heuristics Of Risk
Working with risk is complicated. If you work in law enforcement or the military, you’ve got spreadsheets and computers and checklists to...
When War Games Go Wrong
In 2002, the U.S. military played a war game called “Millennium Challenge.” In charge of the "Blue" U.S. Forces were the highest-ranking...
Will Trade Wars Become Real Wars?
In a trader's letter at Seeking Alpha, Nell Sloane says, “the prospect for protectionism and tariffs turning into currency wars, which...
"Zero-Sum Games" In U.S.-China Trade
A few months ago, China's President Xi said: "We must refrain from seeking dominance and reject the zero-sum game, we must refrain from...
Chapter One of The 24th Name
Thank you to all who made The 24th Name the #1 new release in Kindle Singles Fiction: Here's Chapter One: When I knocked on the door, a...
New Book: The 24th Name
I wrote a new short thriller called The 24th Name. It's the #1 new release in Kindle Singles fiction: Here's what early readers said: ...
Embedding A Zero-Sum Game In A Positive-Sum Game
Everybody likes a good Zero-Sum Game. Whether you’re watching or playing a sport, you like the tension. You like the effort it takes to...
Questions, Decisions and Leadership
I was consulting for a large company. The project was to tie the company’s data and analytics to their decision-making in a particular...
